Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 13.018300 15.191440 17.567281 20.351165 23.517037 26.998421 31.109493
2024-10-27 9.596380 12.541122 16.082212 20.623967 26.261179 32.992284 41.598326
2024-11-03 7.937810 11.416055 15.944491 22.197262 30.519807 41.118528 55.522255
2024-11-10 6.584944 10.308315 15.504731 23.149187 33.941810 48.440656 69.152708
2024-11-17 5.574845 9.417831 15.122855 23.993784 37.170104 55.693027 83.284593
2024-11-24 4.563191 8.293943 14.167227 23.786525 38.760540 60.700734 94.641417
2024-12-01 3.644064 7.116900 12.905329 22.869713 39.085145 63.783213 103.352074
2024-12-08 2.961278 6.194593 11.882874 22.140988 39.532369 66.975336 112.356948
2024-12-15 2.550119 5.676716 11.450233 22.300069 41.366921 72.391872 125.115822
2024-12-22 2.148721 5.093026 10.799838 21.970489 42.303299 76.388943 135.857034
2024-12-29 1.979180 4.945285 10.931230 23.048920 45.748249 84.731837 154.200984
2025-01-05 1.766549 4.661209 10.749765 23.503205 48.094443 91.359946 170.099892
2025-01-12 1.548148 4.330425 10.445471 23.722621 50.107427 97.704196 186.224173
2025-01-19 1.356553 4.023529 10.147222 23.922074 52.114493 104.221173 203.175225
2025-01-26 1.302111 4.047440 10.573679 25.668459 57.281194 116.819693 231.725986
2025-02-02 1.203888 3.935890 10.675884 26.732055 61.182608 127.357167 257.236246
2025-02-09 1.108694 3.811159 10.726674 27.683542 64.932761 137.858117 283.319454
2025-02-16 0.960700 3.499831 10.275909 27.445701 66.178219 143.645409 300.982894
2025-02-23 0.796843 3.096499 9.523873 26.404288 65.594751 145.799446 311.874861
2025-03-02 0.667882 2.765786 8.899673 25.576534 65.375349 148.624919 324.186655
2025-03-09 0.594917 2.601414 8.696575 25.757042 67.417078 156.153349 346.131416
2025-03-16 0.512975 2.381150 8.296933 25.382703 68.143148 160.997901 363.000245
2025-03-23 0.488833 2.368646 8.500334 26.607090 72.713413 174.195437 397.443970